The Collapse of Public Education Research Creates New Winners
Over the last 24 hours Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has eliminated $881 million in U.S. Department of Education research contracts, effectively gutting the Institute of Education Sciences (IES)—the primary federal agency responsible for education data, program evaluation, and long-term research on learning outcomes. By the time you read this, Musk may have fed even more of DoEd to the wood chipper.
This marks a fundamental shift away from publicly funded, independent education research and toward a privatized knowledge ecosystem.
While schools, universities, and policymakers struggle with less transparency and fewer independent data sources, others stand to benefit from this research vacuum. While firms like ours will benefit, this doesn’t necessarily serve the greater good.
1. Big Tech Takes Over AI-Powered Learning—Without Public Oversight
What’s Being Lost with IES Funding Cuts?
- Independent Evaluations of AI in Education – IES has historically funded longitudinal studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on AI-driven tutoring, personalized learning, and speech recognition for education.
- Publicly Available Datasets for AI Model Training – IES research has supported open-access datasets that have been instrumental in training unbiased AI models for education.
- Equity-Focused Research on AI Bias – Studies on how AI impacts English learners, special education students, and low-income students are likely to disappear.
Who Benefits?
- Google Read Along & GrammarlyGO – AI-driven literacy tools that once incorporated public research will now operate without external oversight on effectiveness, accessibility, or bias.
- Duolingo’s AI Tutor – Historically influenced by IES-supported bilingual education research, Duolingo will now be less constrained by independent studies validating second-language acquisition strategies.
- Khan Academy + OpenAI – “Khanmigo,” Khan Academy’s AI tutor, is built on decades of federally supported adaptive learning research. With IES defunded, will these tools become tiered, paywalled services instead of free learning tools?
🔍 The Bottom Line: Big Tech will now define how AI-driven education evolves—with little to no public accountability.
2. Private Research Firms Will Fill the Gap—For a Price
What’s Being Lost with IES Funding Cuts?
- The What Works Clearinghouse (WWC) Will Become Outdated – IES-funded WWC objectively reviewed K-12 learning programs to help districts avoid ineffective or predatory solutions. Without updates, WWC will become irrelevant and schools will rely on vendor-driven research.
- Independent Benchmarking Data on Curriculum & Interventions Will Disappear – IES-backed research has tracked literacy and math program effectiveness in public schools, allowing policymakers to make evidence-based funding decisions. Without this, districts must purchase expensive proprietary reports.
Who Benefits?
- Emerging Strategy & their peers – With fewer free, publicly available datasets, privately owned market intelligence firms will become indispensable to school districts, education companies, and policymakers looking for data.
- Amplify Education & Curriculum Associates – These K-12 curriculum providers already produce their own efficacy studies. With the demise of federally funded curriculum evaluations, their research may become the primary source of evidence—raising concerns about bias.
🔍 The Bottom Line: Education research is shifting from a public good to a commercial product—available only to those who can pay.
3. For-Profit Credentialing Will Dominate Higher Education Data
What’s Being Lost with IES Funding Cuts?
- College Scorecard Transparency – IES research has long tracked graduation rates, student earnings, and return on investment (ROI) by degree type. With less funding, this data may stagnate or disappear, reducing oversight on which degrees lead to real economic mobility.
- Research on Student Loans & Workforce Readiness – Without federal studies tracking loan repayment rates and employment outcomes, private lenders and workforce training companies will control the student success narrative.
Who Benefits?
- Google Career Certificates, Coursera, Udemy, LinkedIn Learning – Without independent data validating degree vs. non-degree pathways, these companies can position their credentials as equal or superior to traditional college degrees.
- Credly, 2U & Microcredentialing Providers – Alternative accreditation firms will set the standards for skills validation, with no independent government-backed research to challenge their claims.
🔍 The Bottom Line: Corporate-backed credentialing studies will replace public higher ed research, shaping college ROI narratives without public scrutiny.
Conclusion: The Privatization of Education Research Is Here
Without IES funding, the private sector will decide:
- What gets researched.
- Who has access to the data.
- How findings are used in policy and product development.
For edtech, research firms, curriculum vendors, and alternative credentialing companies, this is a boon. For public institutions, schools, and students, it marks the end of free, independent education research.
