Anticipated declines in international student mobility to the U.S., UK, Canada, and Australia, driven by restrictive visa policies and rising costs, are reshaping the English Language Test (ELT) ecosystem. Traditionally dominant ELTs like TOEFL (administered by ETS) and IELTS (British Council, IDP, Cambridge English) are facing competitive pressures from tech-driven, affordable alternatives such as the Duolingo English Test (DET). These shifts are critical, as 3.2 million international students currently study in the U.S., UK, Canada, or Australia, but recent and upcoming visa and immigration policy changes are creating uncertainty, likely leading to a decline with significant market implications for ELT providers.
TOEFL’s slow response initially allowed IELTS to expand market share, and more recently Duolingo has expanded its U.S. and global presence, further reducing TOEFL’s market dominance.
Acceptance by admitting institutions remains the primary driver of market share in the ELT ecosystem, particularly as visa restrictions and rising costs in traditional study destinations force students to explore alternative countries and remote-friendly ELTs like DET gain institutional approval. Test administration providers such as Prometric, Pearson VUE, and digital proctoring platforms are also affected, as institutions increasingly seek secure, accessible, and flexible testing solutions.
